This year again, Yole and its partner System Plus Consulting investigate the LiDAR industry and its disruptive technologies. The two companies combine their market and technical expertise to convey their vision.
The market research & strategy consulting company Yole released the LiDAR for Automotive and Industrial Applications report. In this 2020 update, Yole’s experts deliver an understanding of the industry status, taking into account the technology evolution and COVID-19 outbreak. Including market and revenue forecasts, market, and technology trends, this report offers an application-related focus on key existing markets as well as the most promising emerging ones.
This study delivers an accurate analysis of the LiDAR business value chain, infrastructure, and players as well as the LiDAR supply chain with partnerships between OEMs, tier-1s and LiDAR manufacturers.
System Plus Consulting’s analysts provide an intensive analysis of the pulsed laser and the photodiode developed by Hamamatsu and embedded in the automotive Horizon LiDAR from Livox. This report includes a technical and cost analysis of both optoelectronic components. In addition, the company announces the complete profile of the full LiDAR system developed by Livox, the Horizon LiDAR, through its track offering.
What is the status of the LiDAR industry today? Who are the key LiDAR players and how they are related? What technology do they provide? What is the supply chain?
In this environment, Yole’s analysts predict that the LiDAR market for automotive and industrial applications will be US$1.7 billion in 2020. Growth is expected to be 19%. Yole’s forecast is a revenue of US$3.8 billion in 2025.
According to the report, automotive applications are expected to be the main driver for LiDAR in the next five years, providing US$1.8 billion growth between 2019 and 2025. With several partnerships between LiDAR manufacturers and car manufacturers, the market research and strategy consulting company Yole expects 3.2% of personal cars to adopt LiDAR by 2025.
On the other hand, the impact of robotic cars on LiDAR will be more modest due to lower deployment of robotic cars than once expected. LiDAR for personal cars could also be jeopardized. The COVID-19 crisis is putting financial pressure on car manufacturers. Regulations imposing reduced carbon emissions are pushing investments towards electrification. Finally, the ambition of Tesla to achieve autonomous cars without LiDAR could make LiDAR less essential in the coming years.
Chinese LiDAR companies, which usually have LiDAR unit prices one-fifth of that of other companies and usually below US$1,000, are gaining market share and expanding their business. LiDAR with lower unit prices is expected to enter new industrial applications including factory, logistics and security. However, because of lower LiDAR unit prices, the industrial segment is expected to have moderate growth between 2019 and 2025, expanding from US$390 million to US$567 million.
“LiDAR technologies could be adopted for most robots and smart facilities”, says Pierrick Boulay from Yole.
Since the 2005 DARPA Grand Challenge, vehicles have been a major application for 3D real-time LiDAR. In 2017, Audi equipped some of its cars with the Valeo Scala, a long-range LiDAR. At the end of 2018, Waymo launched Waymo One, its robotaxi service equipped with its own mid-range and long-range LiDAR. Continental has announced short-range flash LiDAR for 2020. Aimed at ADAS cars, it could also equip robotaxis or even industrial platforms. Other LiDAR manufacturers that have partnership with car manufacturers, such as Innoviz, Velodyne and Luminar, are targeting long-range applications.
As a key player in the LiDAR industry, Hamamatsu has developed photodiodes and lasers for Livox’s Horizon LiDAR.
According to Sylvain Hallereau, Project Manager Integrated Circuits, Power Semiconductors and LEDs at System Plus Consulting and author of the Hamamatsu Photodiode and Laser in Livox’s Horizon LiDAR report: “LiDARs are manufactured around four main components: the pulsed laser diode, avalanche photodiodes, opto-mechanical system (to scan the environment in front of the car), and the processor”.
The LiDAR sensing module includes a custom six-photodiode array die from Hamamatsu. These optoelectronic components have been developed for LiDAR applications. The design is optimized to increase the sensitivity of the six avalanche photodiodes, states System Plus Consulting in its new reverse costing report. The photodiode dies are assembled in a package with a 905nm narrow bandpass filter.
Industrial applications of LiDAR have a longer history, with topographic applications dating from 1970s. This business is well-established and operated by large companies, explains Yole in its 2020 LiDAR report. Mining applications started to develop in 2008 with Komatsu and Caterpillar offering autonomous dump trucks. Their positions as solution and service providers have helped them operate these fleets. Recently many new industrial applications have been emerging for LiDAR, including warehouse AGVs , terminal AGVs, delivery robots and drones, autonomous forklifts, inspection robots and drones, intelligent traffic systems, security, and soon to come autonomous trucks and smart farming. Yole announces a 31% volume CAGR between 2020 and 2025 for logistics and other industrial applications.
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